Accuracy and Limitations
The Snow Day Calculator is designed to provide a realistic estimate based on live weather forecasts and common closure behavior. It improves as conditions become clearer, but it is not a guarantee.
When the prediction is most accurate
The calculator performs best when forecast confidence is high.
- A storm is within 24–48 hours
- Snowfall totals are consistent across models
- Temperatures are clearly below freezing
- Precipitation timing aligns with morning commute hours
- Weather conditions are widespread, not isolated
Factors that improve accuracy
Some signals provide stronger closure guidance than others.
- Overnight snow accumulation
- Ice or freezing rain risk before morning travel
- Rapid temperature drops after precipitation
- Wind chill that affects bus safety
- Multiple risk factors occurring together
Why predictions can change
Weather forecasts update frequently as new data becomes available.
- Storm tracks shift north or south
- Snow changes to rain or vice versa
- Temperatures move closer to freezing
- Precipitation timing shifts overnight
- Wind speeds increase or decrease
Known limitations
Some situations are difficult to model accurately.
- Lake-effect snow with narrow bands
- Localized icing affecting only small areas
- Borderline temperature events near 32°F / 0°C
- Early forecast periods beyond 72 hours
- Sudden last-minute district decisions
What the calculator does not do
This tool is designed for estimation, not confirmation.
- It does not issue official school closure announcements
- It does not access private school systems
- It does not replace district alerts or notifications
- It cannot guarantee a snow day
Use the prediction wisely
Always confirm closures through official school channels, especially when conditions are changing quickly.